Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2de…dc4f other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%34W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1
sports 37% −$19
politics 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% −$10
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -27.2% -34.1% 73% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 42 -14.4% -22.5% 81% 0% -9.8%
all 42 -14.4% -22.5% 81% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -30.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -36.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -42.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage87d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $291 $291 −$0 (-0%)
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $169 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $147 $130 −$17 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $602 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $602 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $343 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $133 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-12.5) vs Leo Team (+12.5) Jun 10 $210 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 10 $200 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $0 $0 -99%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in May? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omnix vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Ris May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The World (BO3) - BetBoom Rise May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BetBoom May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump post "Six Seven" on Truth Social this week? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will White House post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 29 $70 −$10 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 28 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $291 1h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 23 to June 30 BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $169 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $585 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $1 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 100¢ $16 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 100¢ $602 4d
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 100¢ $602 6d
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 100¢ $602 6d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $1 11d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $90 11d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $39 11d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $243 11d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 11d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $133 12d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-12.5) vs Leo Team (+12.5) BUY Leo Team 100¢ $210 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $141 13d
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Heretics 100¢ $40 13d
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Heretics 100¢ $100 13d
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $130 13d
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $130 13d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 100¢ $200 13d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? BUY Up $0 20d
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m BUY Yes $0 20d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Omnix vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Ris BUY Omnix $0 23d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The World (BO3) - BetBoom Rise BUY HARD GRIND $0 24d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The World (BO3) - BetBoom Rise BUY HARD GRIND $0 24d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The World (BO3) - BetBoom Rise BUY HARD GRIND $0 24d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 24d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.80 · official $733.80 (match) · 101 history records