Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2de…8b0c politics 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$16
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 72 -0.5% -10.0% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage624d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $57 $0 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Royal Never Give Up win the LPL 2026 season? Feb 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Fred VanVleet lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will another team win La Liga? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
GPT-5 released in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Breece Hall be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will TREMP reach $1b first? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Dec 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Bears win the NFC North? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United win the 2024 MLS Cup? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Mary Lou McDonald be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Eric Hargan for HHS Secretary? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Nov 12 $0 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 19d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 33d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 33d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 34d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 35d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 63d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 64d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 70d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 71d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 92d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 92d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 94d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 95d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 97d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 97d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 102d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 103d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 106d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 107d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 111d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 111d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 112d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 113d
Will Royal Never Give Up win the LPL 2026 season? SELL No 100¢ $57 130d
Will Royal Never Give Up win the LPL 2026 season? BUY No 100¢ $57 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records