Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d6…4c20 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$4
sports 17% −$5
other 8% −$3
culture 7% −$7
politics 6% +$44
tech 5% +$2
finance 4% $0
weather 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.3%
all 34 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 6% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 6% -7.2%
10% -17.1% 6% -16.1%
15% -25.1% 3% -24.2%
20% -32.4% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage479d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $35 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $36 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $40 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $21 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 21 $81 −$3 -3%
Norfolk State vs. North Carolina Central Mar 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $70 −$7 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 2? Mar 02 $4 −$2 -48%
Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State Mar 02 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? Mar 02 $33 +$38 +113%
Charlotte vs. East Carolina Mar 02 $24 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 reach space? Mar 02 $49 +$2 +4%
Colorado State vs. Air Force Feb 25 $34 $0 +0%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern Feb 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Germany" during Macron presser today? Feb 24 $27 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $17 10h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $33 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $28 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $23 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $11 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $22 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $10 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $38 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 88¢ $37 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $40 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 88¢ $40 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $40 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.74 · official $32.74 (match) · 95 history records