Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf2d5…53d0 sports 617 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,170 (-5%) realized −$4,181 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%299W / 279L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,353
7 days−$881
14 days−$260
30 days−$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$2,786
world 27% −$1,401
sports 18% +$33
crypto 6% −$134
tech 5% +$160
politics 5% −$116
finance 1% −$39
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -28.1% -34.9% 33% 32% -36.7%
≤30d 439 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 43% -15.7%
≤90d 521 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 45% -25.3%
all 578 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 43% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 43% -14.7%
10% -16.6% 39% -22.8%
15% -24.7% 35% -30.3%
20% -32.0% 30% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized−$4,181
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses299 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions39
Markets (closed)578 / 617
History coverage160d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Manoj Dhamne Manas 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 71¢ 78¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 69¢ 80¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+15%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 70¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 77¢ 86¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 68¢ 78¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Over 57¢ 69¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 64¢ 76¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+18%)
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Gao Wang 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Darwin Blanch 46¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Miriam Bulgaru 69¢ 66¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Felix Balshaw 71¢ 70¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Coleman Wong 52¢ 57¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Dallas Wings 40¢ 42¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 64¢ 63¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 58¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 60¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Rinderknech vs. Medjedovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 54¢ 53¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 69¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 55¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 53¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Grigor Dimitrov 61¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 47¢ 68¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Martina Trevisan 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $6 +$6 +96%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Cattolica: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Messina: Maxence Rivet vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bratislava: Norbert Gombos vs Jan Choinski Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Gao BUY Wang 78¢ $10 19m
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 58¢ $5 21m
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 35¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 46¢ $10 1h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 71¢ $8 3h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $9 3h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 60¢ $5 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 61¢ $6 4h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 64¢ $7 5h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 56¢ $4 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 71¢ $12 6h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 60¢ $5 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $4 6h
Rinderknech vs. Medjedovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 8h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 57¢ $4 8h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 64¢ $9 8h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 69¢ $9 9h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 68¢ $15 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $4 9h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 55¢ $7 9h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 60¢ $2 9h
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 11h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Max Alcala Gurri 68¢ $2 11h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 68¢ $9 12h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 66¢ $5 13h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 58¢ $6 14h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 40¢ $7 14h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 47¢ $4 20h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 49¢ $4 20h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 56¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.62 · official $273.87 (match) · 1684 history records