Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d3…ccb0 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$4
other 32% $0
tech 7% $0
politics 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
economics 2% $0
sports 1% −$5
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 14% -8.7%
all 65 +3.3% -6.6% 48% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 5% -10.0%
10% -15.5% 5% -18.6%
15% -23.7% 5% -26.5%
20% -31.2% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage448d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $42 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $82 +$5 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Dec 14 $29 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $0 $0 +94%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out before July? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jun 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 19 $27 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 18 at 5 PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Jun 10 $2 $0 -17%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $51 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $51 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $11 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $32 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $9 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $44 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $45 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $46 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $46 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $50 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $50 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $46.08 · 217 history records