Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d2…aafd crypto 350 markets active 2d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-11%) realized −$111 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%95W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$79
14 days−$102
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$85
sports 14% −$21
other 10% −$4
world 5% −$32
politics 4% −$16
weather 2% −$7
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -23.8% -31.1% 49% 33% -19.4%
≤30d 231 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 279 -34.9% -41.1% 34% 28% -22.0%
all 279 -34.9% -41.1% 34% 28% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 28% -22.0%
10% -46.7% 22% -29.5%
15% -51.9% 19% -36.3%
20% -56.6% 15% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses95 / 184
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions70
Markets (closed)279 / 350
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 25¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+220%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 31¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+121%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 45¢ 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $90 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$50 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$19 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 38h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $4 38h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 38h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $3 38h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $2 38h
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 16¢ $2 2d
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 19¢ $3 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $90 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.45 · official $79.60 (match) · 711 history records