Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d1…4716 other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%21W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$24
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$31
sports 23% −$21
politics 18% −$10
crypto 7% −$4
culture 6% −$4
world 5% −$8
economics 4% −$3
finance 4% +$7
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 71 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 126 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 155 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses21 / 134
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage109d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $49 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $112 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$2 -1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $414 +$5 +1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $42 $0 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $61 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 $0 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $115 −$2 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 −$2 -3%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $52 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $98 −$1 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $56 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $605 −$2 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $63 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $283 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $30 −$2 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $223 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 90¢ $48 2h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $49 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 17h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 17h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 25h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 90¢ $44 33h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $45 41h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $60 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 2d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 3d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.64 · official $45.64 (match) · 580 history records