Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2d0…44b9
other · 269 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$117 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$158 · open −$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$321
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 139
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions97
Markets (closed)170 / 269
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 97 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$56
14 days−$69
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 28¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 7¢ 24¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+221%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 41¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 19? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 19? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in June? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 23? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gr Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% +$269
politics 15% −$43
economics 7% −$28
world 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$21
culture 4% −$27
tech 3% −$14
sports 2% −$10
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06- BUY 5¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY 4¢ $2 21h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 28¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -72.3% -75.0% 12% 10% -80.0%
≤30d 165 -38.5% -44.4% 16% 15% -48.6%
≤90d 170 -28.4% -35.2% 18% 17% -31.9%
all 170 -28.4% -35.2% 18% 17% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 17% -31.9%
10% -41.4% 16% -38.4%
15% -47.1% 15% -44.4%
20% -52.3% 15% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.99 · official $323.91 (match) · 518 history records