Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2cf…2ca4 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 33L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$7
politics 24% −$7
world 15% −$2
sports 14% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
culture 8% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$863) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage83d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $980 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $907 −$3 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 16 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $975 −$2 -0%
Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local electi May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $33 $0 -0%
USDC depeg by December 31? May 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $73 $0 -0%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 19 $850 −$3 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $853 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 15 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia Apr 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $979 59m
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $938 1h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $934 2h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $905 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $733 2h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 3h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 3h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 3h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $973 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $9 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL No 100¢ $54 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $26 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $14 24h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,033 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $13 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $9 24h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $654 25h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $250 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $907 25h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $941 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $16 42h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $922 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records