Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2cf…464b
other · 1281 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$367 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$247 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,716
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses449 / 146
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions487
Markets (closed)595 / 1281
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2337.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 487 History 595 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$247
14 days+$247
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $9 $38 +$30 (+336%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 92¢ 91¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? No 87¢ 92¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ozuna perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 95¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $32 $19 −$13 (-40%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 98¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 15¢ 92¢ $3 $18 +$16 (+517%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? No 63¢ 92¢ $13 $18 +$6 (+46%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 84¢ 83¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 81¢ 61¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-24%)
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 84¢ 81¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 78¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,350 (HIGH) by April 30? Yes 6¢ 100¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1563%)
Will Monty Fritts win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? No 94¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? No 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Will Dathan Jones be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 85¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,350 (HIGH) by April 30? Jun 14 $1 +$15 +1603%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 28? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +885%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in June 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -53%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +53%
Will Calvin Harris perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 14 $0 $0 +4%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential n Jun 14 $0 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will 9+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Adam Hadwin finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in June 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will Josh Hawley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 13 $0 $0 +5%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the thir Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in June 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +13%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 13 $0 $0 +25%
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $0 +$1 +172%
Will Haiti go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 13 $0 $0 +39%
Will Ghana be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $1 $0 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$91
weather 25% +$98
tech 2% +$19
sports 2% +$23
politics 2% +$5
world 1% +$12
finance 1% +$1
culture 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? SELL No 53¢ $5 1m
Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 2m
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3m
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 3m
Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 4m
Will Calvin Harris perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $5 4m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential n BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $9 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 8m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8m
Will 9+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 99¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 84¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 57¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 93¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 23m
Will Adam Hadwin finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 595 +82.6% +65.2% 75% 47% -0.7%
≤30d 595 +82.6% +65.2% 75% 47% -0.7%
≤90d 595 +82.6% +65.2% 75% 47% -0.7%
all 595 +82.6% +65.2% 75% 47% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2337.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +65.2% 47% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +49.4% 36% -10.2%
15% +35.0% 30% -18.9%
20% +21.7% 24% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,716.18 · official $5,275.93 · 3500 history records