Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf2ca…b467 sports 151 markets active 2d ago coverage 706d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,561 (+5%) realized +$10,998 · open −$2,437
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%98W / 44L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,128per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$48,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$107
14 days+$427
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$12,194
sports 41% +$16,434
crypto 13% +$1,781
politics 1% +$1,404
economics 0% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +11.3% +0.7% 67% 67% -14.0%
≤30d 11 +22.9% +11.2% 73% 73% +3.4%
≤90d 70 -18.9% -26.7% 46% 46% -37.1%
all 142 +11.7% +1.1% 69% 60% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 60% -2.2%
10% -8.6% 49% -11.5%
15% -17.4% 37% -20.1%
20% -25.5% 27% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$905) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$523 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

706d coverage
Net worth$48,276
Realized+$10,998
Unrealized−$2,437
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses98 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions9
Markets (closed)142 / 151
History coverage706d
Avg bet$1,128
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10,347 $11,858 +$1,510 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10,926 $8,709 −$2,217 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5,723 $7,166 +$1,443 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7,005 $6,716 −$289 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $7,005 $5,367 −$1,639 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5,591 $4,274 −$1,318 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3,406 $3,631 +$225 (+7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $208 $306 +$98 (+47%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $393 −$390 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $297 +$353 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $318 +$182 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $406 +$94 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $515 −$509 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $237 +$163 +69%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $341 +$359 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $824 +$176 +21%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $305 +$334 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $339 −$333 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $406 +$194 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $477 −$468 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $645 +$554 +86%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 15 $430 +$170 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $376 −$372 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $459 −$456 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $401 +$106 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $803 +$197 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $412 −$408 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 03 $487 −$483 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 03 $459 +$141 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $2,000 +$613 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $3,000 +$970 +32%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 16 $360 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Apr 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $680 −$680 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Apr 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Apr 16 $570 −$570 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Apr 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Euro Basket: Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Apr 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? Apr 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Apr 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Apr 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 16 $8,129 −$8,129 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 16 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Apr 16 $473 −$473 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Apr 16 $90 −$90 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $298 −$298 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $384 −$384 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Apr 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Apr 16 $336 −$336 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $66 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $252 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $297 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $318 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 81¢ $204 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 81¢ $202 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $191 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $314 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $214 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $298 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $176 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $288 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $360 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $360 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $531 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $561 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3,328 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5,457 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5,582 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6,832 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6,832 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10,076 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10,637 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 59¢ $80 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 59¢ $92 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,275.97 · official $48,275.97 (match) · 554 history records