Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ca…9a62 crypto 65 markets active 5d ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-6%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.1% -18.7% 27% 13% -21.1%
≤30d 23 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 17% -19.1%
≤90d 23 -11.7% -20.1% 39% 17% -19.1%
all 65 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 37% -15.6%
10% -21.7% 25% -23.7%
15% -29.3% 11% -31.1%
20% -36.2% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage206d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -38%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 12 $27 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 11 $23 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 10 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 10 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 10 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 10 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 10 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 13 $37 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 13 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 13 $39 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 13 $81 −$34 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 13 $66 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 12 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records