Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c9…ebf8 world 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
other 22% −$1
politics 13% −$1
sports 10% −$4
economics 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 9% -9.2%
≤30d 34 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 86 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 1% -9.5%
all 109 -2.6% -11.8% 31% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 75
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage528d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +18%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $39 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $40 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $120 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $132 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $38 +$2 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $44 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $11 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $28 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $22 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $33 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.02 · official $27.97 (match) · 481 history records