Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2c6…95ea crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$522per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% −$19
crypto 7% +$2
other 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 37 +0.2% -9.3% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage213d
Avg bet$522
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 22 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Apr 14 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 12? Mar 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? Mar 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? Feb 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? Feb 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 11 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 22? Dec 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 22? Dec 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? Dec 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 November 17-23? Dec 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $7,861 −$8 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $3,693 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $5,264 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $149 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $116 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $125 69d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 69d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $142 100d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $54 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $21 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 131d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 162d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 162d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 162d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 162d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $18 162d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 162d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 162d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 162d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 162d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 162d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 162d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $24 162d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.82 · official $216.82 (match) · 87 history records