Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c6…33a9 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$1
other 16% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 5% $0
weather 3% $0
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 30 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage468d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $45 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $30 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $26 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $30 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the SEC Tournament? Mar 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $33 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 69¢ $32 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $31 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 37h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $11 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $30 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $33 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $33 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $7 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $13 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $30 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.92 · official $31.92 (match) · 74 history records