Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c4…92d3 finance 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$143 (-17%) realized −$154 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$8
finance 23% −$110
politics 10% +$5
crypto 5% −$37
tech 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% +8.4%
≤30d 5 -11.9% -20.3% 40% 40% -8.7%
≤90d 6 -26.6% -33.6% 33% 33% -14.3%
all 31 -15.7% -23.7% 58% 45% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 45% -40.1%
10% -31.0% 23% -45.9%
15% -37.7% 13% -51.1%
20% -43.8% 10% -55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage245d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? No 77¢ 81¢ $350 $368 +$18 (+5%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 14¢ 7¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-49%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $99 −$6 -6%
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? Mar 11 $76 +$4 +5%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Mar 11 $1 $0 +23%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Feb 02 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 30 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 30 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 29 $4 $0 +12%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 29 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 06 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 03 $4 +$1 +24%
Will S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $1 $0 +18%
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $2 $0 +20%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $3 $0 +18%
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 24 $1 +$3 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 8¢ $4 52m
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 8¢ $1 53m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY No 82¢ $100 2d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 8d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $79 9d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $6 9d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY No 80¢ $101 10d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? BUY No 24¢ $5 11d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY No 81¢ $101 46d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY No 62¢ $20 81d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY No 62¢ $31 81d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $5 82d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $5 82d
Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 82d
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? BUY No 48¢ $10 96d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $5 96d
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $80 96d
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 96d
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 97¢ $52 129d
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $62 129d
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? BUY No 93¢ $75 131d
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 131d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY Yes 10¢ $2 132d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $4 132d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.03 · official $377.08 (match) · 80 history records