Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c3…f6cd other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$55 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%41W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$138
14 days−$144
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$155
sports 8% +$16
finance 6% +$11
crypto 4% −$5
politics 3% −$2
tech 2% +$3
world 1% −$2
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.7% -3.5% 58% 50% -23.2%
≤30d 31 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 48% -21.0%
≤90d 37 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 49% -20.9%
all 73 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 41% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 41% -20.4%
10% -19.4% 33% -28.0%
15% -27.2% 26% -35.0%
20% -34.4% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses41 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage142d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 45¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $94 −$65 -69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 +$13 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $75 +$6 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$14 +45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 +$8 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 +$14 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$13 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$20 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $128-$130 on the final day of trading of Jun 19 $4 +$18 +453%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $149 −$83 -56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$20 +21%
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $9 +$6 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $11 +$23 +214%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 20 $2 −$1 -52%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +14%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 8? Mar 08 $9 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 7? Mar 07 $3 +$1 +29%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? Mar 01 $2 $0 +7%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 28 $6 −$3 -42%
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 27 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Feb 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $94 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $81 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $75 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $72 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $27 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $14 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $27 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $86 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $71 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.13 · official $41.13 (match) · 235 history records