Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2bf…3e90
sports · 30 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$51 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$107
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage18d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $51 $87 +$35 (+69%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 46¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 42¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 24¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) FURIA 34¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) FUT Esports 45¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 −$2 -15%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$53 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$29 +287%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$5 -12%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$22 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $21 +$14 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$14 -45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$24 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -17%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $11 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -33%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$5 -23%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $18 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% +$47
other 28% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 59¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $11 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $83 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $14 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 36¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $29 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 25¢ $10 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 67¢ $17 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $5 11h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $10 12h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 12h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 24h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $7 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 49¢ $7 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 41¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 40¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 70¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 57¢ $20 27h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $35 29h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $21 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION $2 31h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $14 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 29¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 70¢ $15 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 19¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $13 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.6% -5.4% 46% 38% -7.2%
≤30d 28 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 36% -7.1%
≤90d 28 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 36% -7.1%
all 28 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 36% -7.1%
10% -14.3% 36% -16.0%
15% -22.6% 36% -24.1%
20% -30.2% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.52 · official $107.13 (match) · 76 history records