Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2bf…66c7 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$35 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%38W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$79
14 days−$100
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$133
sports 1% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.0% -16.7% 27% 18% -65.4%
≤30d 27 -16.7% -24.6% 22% 19% -29.5%
≤90d 86 -4.6% -13.7% 35% 23% -12.3%
all 100 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 25% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 25% -11.1%
10% -16.6% 20% -19.6%
15% -24.7% 13% -27.4%
20% -32.1% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses38 / 62
Open positions7
Markets (closed)100 / 95
History coverage117d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +558%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $24 −$3 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $60 −$17 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $78 +$19 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$12 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $32 −$5 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $27 −$5 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $38 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $71 −$15 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $39 −$12 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $33 −$7 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $73 +$8 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $23 +$19 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $17 +$6 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $33 −$17 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $54 −$12 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $17 −$4 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $24 −$6 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $32 −$12 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $33 +$7 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 05 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $65 +$6 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 27 $79 −$15 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $35 +$9 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $39 −$22 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $61 −$40 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $52 −$23 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 19h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $36 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 45h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 45h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $26 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $20 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $4.37 (match) · 449 history records