Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2bf…8e4b
sports · 9 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$426 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$431 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$614
Realized+$431
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$431
7 days+$431
14 days+$431
30 days+$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 60¢ $301 $299 −$3 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $131 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$197 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $196 +$103 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $199 +$132 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 +$134 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% +$481
other 25% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $189 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $161 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $350 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $146 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $298 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $96 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $99 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $135 11h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 74¢ $331 13h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 25¢ $199 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 18h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 18h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $333 18h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $200 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.2% +7.8% 67% 67% +34.8%
≤30d 6 +19.2% +7.8% 67% 67% +34.8%
≤90d 6 +19.2% +7.8% 67% 67% +34.8%
all 6 +19.2% +7.8% 67% 67% +34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 67% +34.8%
10% -2.5% 67% +21.9%
15% -11.9% 67% +10.1%
20% -20.5% 67% -0.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.62 · official $613.62 (match) · 18 history records