Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2bd…d658
world · 86 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage524d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 3 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 −$4 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $53 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $49 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $28 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 14 $3 $0 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$17
other 24% +$1
politics 22% −$13
sports 14% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $22 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $26 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $26 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $26 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $24 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $29 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $29 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $26 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $25 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 16d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.2% -39.5% 67% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 18 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 76 -3.2% -12.5% 37% 0% -10.2%
all 83 -4.7% -13.8% 37% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 1% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 1% -19.1%
15% -29.6% 1% -26.9%
20% -36.5% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.13 · official $22.23 (match) · 310 history records