Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf2bb…ae21 weather 858 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,439 (+11%) realized +$2,394 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%408W / 426L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day42.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$232
14 days−$250
30 days+$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$721
world 24% +$1,175
other 12% −$146
sports 7% −$132
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +7.0% -3.2% 39% 36% -19.8%
≤30d 159 -4.5% -13.6% 46% 36% -2.5%
≤90d 834 +12.5% +1.8% 49% 33% -2.9%
all 834 +12.5% +1.8% 49% 33% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.8% 33% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 26% -12.2%
15% -16.9% 22% -20.7%
20% -25.0% 20% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,169
Realized+$2,394
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses408 / 426
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions25
Markets (closed)834 / 858
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day42.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 70¢ 70¢ $209 $211 +$2 (+1%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 96¢ $142 $192 +$50 (+35%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 80¢ 95¢ $82 $97 +$15 (+18%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 50¢ $119 $75 −$44 (-37%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $67 $74 +$7 (+11%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $23 $37 +$13 (+56%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? No 83¢ 92¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $106 −$23 -22%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -19%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $17 −$13 -77%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $148 −$43 -29%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $62 −$38 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $691 −$235 -34%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $68 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 16 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 15 $112 +$5 +5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$19 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$32 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$17 +637%
Will any player score 40+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +250%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 15 or more p Jun 14 $96 +$54 +56%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 20 or more p Jun 14 $182 +$45 +25%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more p Jun 14 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +56%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $109 −$34 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$9 +315%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$12 +143%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 +$12 +41%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $13 +$7 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$7 +257%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $12 −$8 -67%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 09 $16 +$4 +25%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $34 +$11 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $15 −$4 -29%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $18 +$2 +13%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-Jun Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-Jun Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $47 37m
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 39m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 40m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 41m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 41m
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 3¢ $13 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $140 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 30¢ $61 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $17 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $1 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $1 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $1 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $8 6h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $9 6h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 27¢ $4 7h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $5 7h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $13 7h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 7h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 7h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 7h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,169.08 · official $1,169.08 (match) · 3500 history records