Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2bb…1c11 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+5%) realized +$10 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$86
other 48% +$171
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -9.5%
≤90d 31 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -9.5%
all 31 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 35% -9.5%
10% -26.9% 32% -18.2%
15% -33.9% 32% -26.1%
20% -40.4% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$29 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 56¢ $225 $296 +$71 (+31%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+89%)
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Yes 26¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 −$2 -9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $91 +$117 +128%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $164 −$162 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $222 −$222 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$17 +55%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$38 +188%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$30 -59%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 23 $67 +$13 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$53 +172%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$3 -11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$24 +207%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $177 +$160 +91%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$30 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 34m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $153 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $76 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $23 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $49 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $25 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 11¢ $52 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 13¢ $112 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 26h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $11 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $30 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Ireland 10¢ $10 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland $1 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 99¢ $267 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 75¢ $31 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 75¢ $3 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 75¢ $99 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.45 · official $321.51 (match) · 92 history records