Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2b8…081a sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$464 (-6%) realized −$469 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$504
14 days−$504
30 days−$503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$471
other 19% +$3
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% +$1
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.4% -51.5% 50% 0% -51.5%
≤30d 4 -23.1% -30.4% 75% 0% -37.5%
≤90d 13 -6.7% -15.6% 92% 0% -16.9%
all 15 -5.7% -14.7% 93% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -15.7%
10% -22.9% 0% -23.8%
15% -30.3% 0% -31.2%
20% -37.2% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$505 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 59¢ 60¢ $562 $567 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $543 −$505 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $543 +$1 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 02 $210 +$1 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $332 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $525 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 14 $530 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 10 $330 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $535 +$1 +0%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $524 +$10 +2%
Magic vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $519 +$5 +1%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 03 $519 +$1 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 31 $517 +$2 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $516 +$1 +0%
Nets vs. 76ers Mar 15 $510 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $569 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador $38 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $543 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $543 6d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $332 30d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $210 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 99¢ $525 39d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $530 47d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $330 51d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun BUY No 100¢ $200 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $535 64d
Warriors vs. Suns BUY Suns 98¢ $524 69d
Magic vs. Pelicans BUY Magic 99¢ $519 81d
Pacers vs. Bulls BUY Pacers 100¢ $519 85d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $517 93d
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 100¢ $516 98d
Nets vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 99¢ $510 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.70 · official $566.70 (match) · 34 history records