Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf2b6…80b9 crypto 83 markets active 5d ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$254,491 (-439%) realized −$254,491 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%36W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$10,004
world 11% −$2,724
other 8% −$2,343
sports 8% −$4,503
finance 4% +$29
tech 2% −$1,331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.4% -16.2% 8% 8% -94.4%
≤30d 65 -19.3% -27.0% 9% 9% -94.3%
≤90d 98 -24.9% -32.0% 17% 17% -92.5%
all 134 -18.5% -26.2% 27% 25% -89.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 25% -89.5%
10% -33.3% 24% -90.5%
15% ← realistic here -39.7% 21% -91.5%
20% -45.6% 18% -92.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,365) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$812 vs −$5,249 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$254,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses36 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 83
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$698
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? Jun 28 $2,393 −$2,393 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 16? Jun 28 $14,054 −$14,054 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Jun 28 $10,904 −$9,265 -85%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jun 28 $1,994 −$2,111 -106%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jun 28 $8,314 −$8,314 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Jun 28 $0 +$11,281 +62671642%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 20-26? Jun 28 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 7? Jun 28 $4,110 −$4,110 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 6? Jun 28 $15,500 −$15,496 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16? Jun 28 $30,044 −$30,044 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 21? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Jun 28 $2,884 −$2,884 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Jun 28 $0 −$76 -32134%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Jun 28 $32,754 −$31,901 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 2? Jun 28 $6,317 −$6,317 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 20, 2PM ET Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 22? Jun 28 $28,131 −$28,131 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 9? Jun 28 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 11? Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Jun 28 $0 +$1,095 +538461%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 4? Jun 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 28 $1,593 −$1,593 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15? Jun 28 $5,941 −$5,941 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6? Jun 28 $6,210 −$6,210 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Jun 28 $1,377 −$1,377 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 4? Jun 28 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 22? Jun 28 $28,740 −$28,740 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 22? Jun 28 $1,629 −$1,629 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17? Jun 28 $8,713 −$8,713 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Jun 28 $2,122 +$881 +42%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Jun 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23? Jun 28 $10,404 −$9,774 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8? Jun 28 $52,846 −$41,846 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 17? Jun 28 $43,201 −$43,201 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 4? Jun 28 $21,257 −$21,257 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 14? Jun 28 $22,295 −$22,142 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Jun 28 $19,794 −$19,794 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 4? Jun 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 14? Jun 28 $20,327 −$20,327 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 18? Jun 28 $721 −$721 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 8? Jun 28 $3,338 −$3,338 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 9? Jun 28 $17,174 −$17,174 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? Jun 28 $15,860 −$15,860 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 1? Jun 28 $29,230 −$24,093 -82%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 7? Jun 28 $890 −$890 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Jun 28 $3,912 −$3,871 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on November Jun 28 $1,809 −$1,809 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 6? Jun 28 $13,187 −$13,168 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $93 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $44 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,622 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 7d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 67¢ $269 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records