Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2b6…b4ce
crypto · 854 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20,356 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20,341 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$282
Realized−$20,341
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses517 / 739
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1256 / 854
Avg bet$55
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 1256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,498
7 days−$18,664
14 days−$18,613
30 days−$18,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $185 $198 +$13 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 79¢ 52¢ $80 $53 −$27 (-34%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$1,501
other 3% +$111
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $81 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $73 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $70 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $84 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $44 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $33 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $87 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $93 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $81 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 661 -60.2% -64.0% 29% 25% -51.6%
≤30d 685 -58.0% -62.0% 30% 26% -50.5%
≤90d 1256 -34.4% -40.7% 41% 35% -37.8%
all 1256 -34.4% -40.7% 41% 35% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.7% 35% -37.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.4% 24% -43.7%
15% -51.5% 19% -49.2%
20% -56.3% 16% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.66 · official $281.66 (match) · 3500 history records