Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2b3…47b6 world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-11%) realized −$58 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$65
politics 10% +$8
other 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.4% -36.1% 9% 0% -25.4%
≤30d 11 -29.4% -36.1% 9% 0% -25.4%
≤90d 11 -29.4% -36.1% 9% 0% -25.4%
all 11 -29.4% -36.1% 9% 0% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.1% 0% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.2% 0% -32.5%
15% -47.8% 0% -39.1%
20% -52.9% 0% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 64¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 47¢ 60¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+30%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 45¢ 15¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$8 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $27 −$4 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $13 −$2 -12%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $19 −$9 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $93 −$6 -7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $65 −$10 -15%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $74 −$10 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $5 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $21 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $11 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $1 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $0 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $27 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $13 15h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL Yes 16¢ $9 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $14 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $8 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 58¢ $40 30h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 74¢ $0 32h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $86 32h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.31 · official $70.31 (match) · 55 history records