Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf2b3…7cc2 crypto 373 markets active 2d ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$129 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%153W / 196L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$12
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$16
crypto 20% +$19
world 14% −$21
sports 14% −$36
tech 7% +$8
politics 6% +$32
economics 5% +$10
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.6% -40.9% 33% 33% -49.3%
≤30d 12 +60.5% +45.2% 58% 58% +26.5%
≤90d 48 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 46% -9.4%
all 349 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 37% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 37% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 32% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 28% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 26% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses153 / 196
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)349 / 373
History coverage703d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 58¢ 16¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 54¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 45¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +95%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 06 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 04 $2 +$12 +585%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 27 $5 +$19 +386%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $30 +$4 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $13 +$7 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? May 02 $6 +$5 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 02 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $3 +$4 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 14 $5 +$6 +126%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $37 −$23 -62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 09 $2 +$9 +426%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 09 $13 +$11 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 +$2 +180%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $50 +$21 +43%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $6 +$4 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$4 +397%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 29 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026? Mar 26 $10 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 22 $10 +$6 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 8AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $21 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 61¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $2 11d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 12d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 12d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 15d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 15d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 23d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 23d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 23d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 42d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 42d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 42d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 45d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 45d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 45d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 45d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 45d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 59d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 59d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 59d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.38 · official $416.38 (match) · 1026 history records