Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf2b2…6921 crypto 798 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%590W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day76.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$288
14 days−$288
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$251
other 1% −$14
sports 1% +$24
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -2.8% -12.0% 16% 16% -80.0%
≤30d 108 -3.3% -12.5% 32% 29% -46.5%
≤90d 843 +1.6% -8.1% 70% 62% -15.4%
all 843 +1.6% -8.1% 70% 62% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 62% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 39% -23.5%
15% -24.9% 19% -30.9%
20% -32.3% 8% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses590 / 253
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)843 / 798
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 843 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 247 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$4 +743%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$2 +384%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$1 +724%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$3 +846%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bra BUY 1¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Pan BUY 1¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 26¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND France BUY 52¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W SELL 83¢ $19 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 23h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $1 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $3 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $1 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 9¢ $2 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $6 27h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY 56¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY 15¢ $5 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 40¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.35 · official $56.85 · 3500 history records