Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:11:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F2 0xf2af…7362 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$8 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day4.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$5

7 days−$1

14 days−$6

30 days−$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-21.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-9.5%	-18.2%	48%	43%	-9.8%
≤30d	22	-13.5%	-21.7%	45%	41%	-11.6%
≤90d	22	-13.5%	-21.7%	45%	41%	-11.6%
all	22	-13.5%	-21.7%	45%	41%	-11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.7%	41%	-11.6%
10%	-29.2%	27%	-20.1%
15%	-36.0%	23%	-27.8%
20%	-42.3%	14%	-34.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.9 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$75

Realized+$8

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 34

History coverage14d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day4.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$76	$75	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 28	$5	$0	+7%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 28	$5	−$2	-49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 28	$12	−$1	-5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$7	−$4	-51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$6	+$1	+14%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$4	+$2	+60%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 28	$2	$0	-12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$3	+$1	+21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	Jun 27	$2	−$2	-92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND	Jun 26	$5	−$4	-80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$38	−$1	-2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$20	−$19	-95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$8	+$2	+26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$21	+$16	+73%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$10	−$5	-53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$22	−$9	-40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$25	+$19	+73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$21	+$4	+20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$15	+$7	+43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$5	+$2	+41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$5	9m
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	SELL Yes	75¢	$6	9m
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$7	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$3	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	76¢	$6	1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	45¢	$11	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$8	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	77¢	$20	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	46¢	$4	2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	30¢	$3	2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$7	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$6	3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6	3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	65¢	$2	3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	13¢	$2	3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2	3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	SELL	0¢	$0	6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	82¢	$3	6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	1¢	$2	13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26	BUY	6¢	$4	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND	SELL	8¢	$1	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26	BUY	8¢	$4	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26	BUY	8¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND	BUY	39¢	$5	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	4¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.92 · official $74.92 (match) · 65 history records