Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ae…272c crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$170 (-14%) realized −$141 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$171
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 49% -23.6%
≤30d 35 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 49% -23.6%
≤90d 35 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 49% -23.6%
all 35 +5.3% -4.7% 54% 49% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 49% -23.6%
10% -13.8% 43% -30.9%
15% -22.1% 37% -37.6%
20% -29.8% 34% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Down 68¢ 48¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $155 +$32 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $72 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $72 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $72 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $134 +$20 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $66 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $71 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $71 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $95 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.32 · official $71.32 (match) · 75 history records