Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2ad…fa3f crypto 260 markets active 4h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$307 (+0%) realized +$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%256W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$18
14 days+$28
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 91% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 50 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 155 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 258 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$558) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×194.54 per $1 lost it wins $194.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$576
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses256 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)258 / 260
History coverage166d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $339 $339 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $237 $236 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $570 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $57 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $366 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $399 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $162 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $558 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $254 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $245 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $265 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $243 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $264 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $527 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $258 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $265 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $282 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $516 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $237 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $339 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $343 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $228 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $141 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 82¢ $56 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $168 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $80 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $69 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $248 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $206 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $257 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.57 · official $575.57 (match) · 585 history records