Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2aa…21fb
other · 267 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$27,711 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,492 · open +$2,126
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$10,951
Realized+$25,492
Unrealized+$2,126
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses135 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)253 / 267
History coverage371d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 13 History 253 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$2,738
14 days+$2,416
30 days−$2,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 22¢ 56¢ $972 $2,503 +$1,531 (+157%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 64¢ 96¢ $1,437 $2,151 +$714 (+50%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 80¢ 92¢ $1,465 $1,686 +$221 (+15%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 39¢ 30¢ $1,960 $1,516 −$444 (-23%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $1,001 $1,001 +$0 (+0%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $625 $698 +$73 (+12%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $474 $478 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $249 $268 +$19 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $231 $235 +$4 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $194 $199 +$6 (+3%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes $155 $162 +$7 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? No $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $2,848 +$143 +5%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $1,015 +$1,202 +118%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $1,671 +$1,381 +83%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–$3.25 in May? Jun 10 $87 +$4 +4%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May? Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $134 +$7 +5%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $217 −$217 -100%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $364 +$77 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $1,005 +$98 +10%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $1,888 −$781 -41%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 28 $2,028 −$1,805 -89%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 20 $933 −$870 -93%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 20 $27 +$3 +13%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? May 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $1,031 −$948 -92%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $631 −$550 -87%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $599 −$298 -50%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $261 +$316 +121%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliame May 15 $2,374 +$352 +15%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April? May 12 $142 +$27 +19%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in April? May 12 $681 +$386 +57%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 11 $1,531 −$117 -8%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? May 10 $1,005 −$325 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? May 03 $51 +$39 +77%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $920 +$343 +37%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $493 +$1,007 +204%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Apr 29 $153 −$30 -19%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $52 −$52 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Apr 28 $440 −$7 -2%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 28 $89 −$1 -2%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in April? Apr 28 $0 $0 -82%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in April? Apr 28 $0 $0 -76%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in April? Apr 28 $0 $0 +43%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in April? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -82%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in April? Apr 28 $0 $0 -9%
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$3.75 in April? Apr 28 $0 $0 +82%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.75 in April? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -72%
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 28 $68 −$55 -81%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 28 $42 −$21 -51%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 28 $1,424 −$451 -32%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 27 $943 +$56 +6%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 14 $922 +$6 +1%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,822 +$660 +36%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 12 $683 −$7 -1%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $100 −$27 -27%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 12 $141 −$11 -8%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% +$16,014
tech 30% +$672
politics 16% +$12,697
finance 7% +$2,768
world 4% −$3,398
economics 3% −$761
crypto 2% +$69
weather 1% −$466
sports 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $197 23m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 23m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 23m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $239 24m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY No $10 24m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $245 25m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $1 26m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $15 26m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $29 26m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $3 26m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 48¢ $25 26m
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 4h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $82 4h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 5h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $47 5h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $131 5h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $98 5h
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $611 5h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $144 5h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $243 5h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 8h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $422 8h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $83 20h
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $403 20h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $229 20h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 29h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 30h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 30h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $72 30h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $31 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +36.6% +23.6% 100% 33% +33.3%
≤30d 21 -10.7% -19.2% 57% 33% -20.3%
≤90d 76 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 36% -1.9%
all 253 +23.6% +11.8% 53% 36% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.8% 36% +6.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.1% 28% -3.4%
15% -8.6% 26% -12.8%
20% -17.6% 21% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,951.13 · official $10,951.13 (match) · 3500 history records