Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a8…4d27 other 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,836 (-10%) realized −$1,683 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%48W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$705
7 days−$1,681
14 days−$1,793
30 days−$1,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$643
sports 33% +$111
crypto 10% −$422
world 9% −$565
politics 0% −$23
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -49.8% -54.5% 9% 9% -45.3%
≤30d 66 -31.4% -37.9% 14% 14% -28.3%
≤90d 139 -34.6% -40.9% 16% 16% -31.3%
all 220 -21.7% -29.2% 22% 22% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 22% -18.6%
10% -35.9% 21% -26.4%
15% -42.1% 20% -33.5%
20% -47.8% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$49 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$2,960
Realized−$1,683
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses48 / 172
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions27
Markets (closed)220 / 253
History coverage189d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $430 $418 −$12 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $200 $270 +$70 (+35%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $300 $245 −$55 (-18%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $210 $239 +$29 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $125 $170 +$45 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $200 $153 −$47 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $120 $106 −$14 (-12%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 95¢ $54 $92 +$38 (+70%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $96 $80 −$16 (-17%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+35%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 13¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $42 $51 +$9 (+22%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 75¢ 6¢ $80 $6 −$74 (-93%)
Will Dani Olmo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $443 −$203 -46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $105 +$410 +388%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $200 −$108 -54%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $51 +$292 +569%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$97 +474%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $225 29m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 1¢ $10 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 20h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $92 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY 3¢ $15 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $38 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 29¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 16¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,959.98 · official $2,971.63 (match) · 686 history records