Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a5…542e world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%8W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$5
other 24% $0
politics 13% −$2
crypto 7% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 16 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 6% -10.2%
all 35 -1.5% -10.9% 23% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -10.0%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses8 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage264d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $104 −$4 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $52 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $105 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $13 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $59 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $6 −$1 -13%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +12%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 23 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 29 $8 −$2 -20%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $51 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $50 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $50 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $4 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $46 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $38 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $13 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $37 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $13 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $28 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $3 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $50 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $52 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $48 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $12 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $53 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.24 · official $29.30 (match) · 138 history records