Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a5…3942 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$152 (-42%) realized −$149 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$154
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$167
sports 33% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.9% -13.9% 16% 16% -56.5%
≤30d 37 -4.9% -13.9% 16% 16% -56.5%
≤90d 37 -4.9% -13.9% 16% 16% -56.5%
all 37 -4.9% -13.9% 16% 16% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 16% -56.5%
10% -22.2% 16% -60.6%
15% -29.7% 16% -64.4%
20% -36.6% 16% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$149
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)37 / 51
History coverage156d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+147%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-51%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Gabriel Magalhães: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 13 $4 +$17 +436%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$36 +1843%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $5 24h
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 26h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $5 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 28h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $10 28h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $10 28h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.54 · official $50.64 (match) · 100 history records