Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a1…e6f6 other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$40
sports 20% −$11
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $747 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $428 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $288 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $362 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $589 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $330 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $567 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $254 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $224 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 7h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $56 8h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 16h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 19h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 20h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 21h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 24h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 25h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 27h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 28h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 30h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 33h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 34h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 39h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 40h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 44h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 45h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 47h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.06 · official $56.06 (match) · 1291 history records