Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf29d…7d24 sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%35W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1
other 39% +$1
crypto 8% $0
weather 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses35 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 25h
Fortaleza EC leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $4 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 26h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 29h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $50 29h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 100¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 74 history records