Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf29a…3122 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$691 (+32%) realized +$713 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +174% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +129% what you keep after slip
Net edge+129%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$604
other 38% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+147.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +173.9% +147.8% 57% 57% +98.0%
≤30d 7 +173.9% +147.8% 57% 57% +98.0%
≤90d 7 +173.9% +147.8% 57% 57% +98.0%
all 7 +173.9% +147.8% 57% 57% +98.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +147.8% 57% +98.0%
10% +124.1% 57% +79.0%
15% +102.4% 57% +61.7%
20% +82.6% 57% +45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +119% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +174% · $-wt +119% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$73 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized+$713
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $264 $256 −$9 (-3%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colo Jun 18 $31 +$202 +657%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $302 +$344 +114%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$282 +549%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $141 +$277 +197%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $269 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $609 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia vs. S BUY 8¢ $185 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa BUY 7¢ $185 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $112 14h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $333 14h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $418 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $302 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colo BUY 13¢ $31 17h
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 17h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $51 17h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $103 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $141 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.64 · official $1,352.64 · 17 history records