Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf292…3636 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-15%) realized −$192 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$80
crypto 34% −$276
sports 10% +$45
world 9% −$36
politics 9% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +28.2% +16.0% 35% 29% -11.5%
≤30d 35 +24.6% +12.7% 34% 29% -15.1%
≤90d 37 +22.7% +11.0% 35% 30% -26.2%
all 38 +19.4% +8.1% 34% 29% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 29% -34.5%
10% -2.3% 29% -40.7%
15% -11.7% 24% -46.5%
20% -20.4% 21% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$28 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage225d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$25 -61%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 +$29 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 −$36 -30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 +$123 +295%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$21 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$90 +1747%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 +$45 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2PM ET Apr 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1PM ET Apr 02 $135 −$126 -94%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $15 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 105 history records