Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf290…0d47 other 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+1%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$4
other 32% +$44
politics 15% −$11
finance 4% −$2
weather 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +151.3% +127.4% 57% 14% +16.7%
≤90d 78 +8.7% -1.6% 38% 3% -8.7%
all 84 +7.6% -2.7% 38% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 2% -9.0%
10% -12.0% 2% -17.7%
15% -20.5% 2% -25.6%
20% -28.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage95d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $133 +$4 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 25 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 23 $5 +$67 +1348%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15? May 16 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Azerbaijan come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $191 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, May 12 $1 $0 -10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $162 $0 +0%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 11 $380 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 10 $910 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $174 $0 -0%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $97 +$2 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $94 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 25 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2 $0 -8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $69 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $4 $0 +9%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 16 $6 −$2 -30%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $2 $0 -15%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $92 −$11 -12%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 14 $10 +$1 +6%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 13 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No $2 24m
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY No $0 24m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $45 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $52 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $28 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $52 27d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY No $4 27d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY Yes $5 28d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY Yes $5 32d
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 95¢ $29 34d
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 95¢ $29 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $3 34d
Will Azerbaijan come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15? BUY No 94¢ $30 39d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15? BUY No 94¢ $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $25 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $96 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 99¢ $96 40d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $1 40d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, BUY Yes $1 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $75 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $75 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 98¢ $96 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $95 41d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.02 · official $85.02 (match) · 332 history records