Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf28f…ec5a politics 128 markets active 7d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 111L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$23
sports 24% −$15
other 23% −$21
finance 8% +$4
crypto 6% −$11
economics 5% −$3
world 5% +$12
culture 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 44 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 86 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage111d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $409 −$7 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $283 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $95 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $56 $0 +1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $55 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $334 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $141 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $593 −$2 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $63 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $260 −$3 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $334 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $53 6d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $53 6d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 14d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 14d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 14d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 14d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $39 15d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $11 15d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $29 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $50 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $50 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $61 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $61 15d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $61 15d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $61 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 16d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 16d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 16d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 93¢ $48 16d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $48 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $61 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $61 16d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $54 17d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $54 17d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $65 17d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $65 17d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $58 17d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $59 17d
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $42 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records