Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf28e…cab2
sports · 780 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$608,009 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$198,259 · open −$6,043
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$105,907
Realized+$198,259
Unrealized−$6,043
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses378 / 561
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$42,472
Open positions6
Markets (closed)939 / 780
History coverage97d
Avg bet$5,689
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 939 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$417,771
7 days−$524,991
14 days−$398,553
30 days−$111,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 76¢ 69¢ $91,496 $84,083 −$7,413 (-8%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 49¢ 30¢ $20,001 $12,551 −$7,450 (-37%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Under 57¢ 86¢ $3,855 $5,809 +$1,955 (+51%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $668 $1,412 +$744 (+111%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 52¢ 33¢ $1,741 $1,112 −$629 (-36%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Knicks 59¢ 74¢ $600 $757 +$158 (+26%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 25¢ $1,002 $182 −$820 (-82%)
Missouri State Bears vs. Florida International Golden Panthers: O/U 153.5 Over 51¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) Trail Blazers 56¢ $6,557 $0 −$6,557 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Cavaliers 73¢ $3,665 $0 −$3,665 (-100%)
Nets vs. Nuggets Nets 34¢ $391 $0 −$391 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 Under 48¢ $22,023 $0 −$22,023 (-100%)
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Broncos 10¢ $750 $0 −$750 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 Under 38¢ $5,256 $0 −$5,256 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 45¢ $14,237 $0 −$14,237 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Under 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5) Missouri Tigers 32¢ $489 $0 −$489 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 49¢ $13,465 $0 −$13,465 (-100%)
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Over 40¢ $7,717 $0 −$7,717 (-100%)
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 34.5 Over 35¢ $208 $0 −$208 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Under 44¢ $13,318 $0 −$13,318 (-100%)
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5 Over 10¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Nuggets 51¢ $2,005 $0 −$2,005 (-100%)
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-2.5) Vanderbilt Commodores 54¢ $237 $0 −$237 (-100%)
Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 No 40¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nets vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $391 −$391 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-13.5) Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Rangers vs. Devils: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5,256 −$5,256 -100%
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5 Jun 14 $7,717 −$7,717 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills: O/U 34.5 Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5 Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,005 −$2,005 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $244 −$244 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 14 $14,500 −$14,500 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 14 $2,439 −$2,439 -100%
Spread: Manhattan Jaspers (-5.5) Jun 14 $5,986 −$5,986 -100%
Chicago State Cougars vs. LIU Sharks Jun 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. East Texas A&M Lions: O/U 145.5 Jun 14 $954 −$954 -100%
Spread: Packers (-7.5) Jun 14 $800 −$800 -100%
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Wagner Seahawks Jun 14 $1,435 −$1,435 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 49.5 Jun 14 $2,312 −$2,312 -100%
Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $8,441 −$8,441 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 14 $8,925 −$8,925 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Jun 14 $13,025 −$13,025 -100%
Ducks vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $4,975 −$4,975 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 14 $5,033 −$5,033 -100%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 138.5 Jun 14 $1,103 −$1,103 -100%
Knicks vs. Suns: O/U 227.5 Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Jun 14 $2,013 −$2,013 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $598 −$598 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Lakers vs. Jazz Jun 14 $481 −$481 -100%
Alcorn State Braves vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 14 $9,744 −$9,744 -100%
James Madison Dukes vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes Jun 14 $720 −$720 -100%
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions Jun 14 $10,792 −$10,792 -100%
Spread: BYU Cougars (-16.5) Jun 14 $1,859 −$1,859 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Wagner Seahawks: O/U 137.5 Jun 14 $3,010 −$3,010 -100%
Omaha Mavericks vs. Denver Pioneers: O/U 158.5 Jun 14 $312 −$312 -100%
Spread: Idaho State Bengals (-4.5) Jun 14 $740 −$740 -100%
Browns vs. Bengals Jun 14 $738 −$738 -100%
1H Spread: Ravens (-2.5) Jun 14 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 Jun 14 $3,545 −$3,545 -100%
Wright State Raiders vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 14 $2,381 −$2,381 -100%
Spread: Bills (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Kraken Jun 14 $382 −$382 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $983 −$983 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $903 −$903 -100%
Lakers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $331 −$331 -100%
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$616,937
other 4% +$5,757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $51 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $12 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $6 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $3 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $7 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $176 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $4 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $104 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $2,212 0m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $1,398 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $23 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 49¢ $4,471 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $7,539 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $1,360 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 50¢ $2 1m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 45¢ $510 2m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 45¢ $2 2m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 43¢ $1,849 2m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $20 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 83¢ $2,998 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $3,716 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $10 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $5,518 17m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 28m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $74 28m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $268 28m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $316 29m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $1 36m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 82¢ $0 36m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $1,767 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -77.0% -79.2% 11% 11% -68.6%
≤30d 385 -39.2% -45.0% 31% 28% -14.6%
≤90d 839 -19.9% -27.6% 39% 35% -5.5%
all 939 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 35% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 35% -5.7%
10% -32.1% 33% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -38.7% 30% -23.0%
20% -44.7% 28% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105,906.69 · official $105,156.52 (match) · 3500 history records