Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf28d…40cd crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (634 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$113 (+0%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day634.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,488
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (634 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤30d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% +12.7%
≤90d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% +12.7%
all 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover634.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 52% +12.7%
10% -9.2% 52% +1.9%
15% ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -8.0%
20% -26.1% 45% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,091) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,018 vs −$676 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$882
Trades / day634.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,374 +$1,733 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $720 +$619 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $746 +$630 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $129 −$124 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $1,048 −$1,012 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $732 +$443 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $577 +$385 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $692 −$663 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $794 +$795 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $860 +$774 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $941 −$893 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $1,001 −$444 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $2,447 +$1,868 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $591 −$561 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $1,236 +$2,365 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $892 +$203 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,320 −$1,267 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $656 −$376 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $708 +$1,947 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,136 −$1,085 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $1,512 +$1,706 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $946 +$1,322 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $1,198 −$1,143 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,193 −$1,135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$16 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $752 +$1,803 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $487 −$481 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $610 −$596 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $617 −$616 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,383 +$414 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $1,091 −$182 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $452 +$280 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $77 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $920 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $232 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $61 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1,278 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $595 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $64 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 649 history records