Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F2 0xf28c…cdf8 finance 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 46d

TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$7,402 (+5%) realized +$10,615 · open −$3,213

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate73%11W / 4L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$7,170per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$26,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$2,611

14 days+$2,611

30 days+$9,969

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-17.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+20.6%	+9.1%	100%	67%	+1.2%
≤30d	13	-11.8%	-20.2%	77%	38%	-0.2%
≤90d	15	-8.7%	-17.4%	73%	40%	-1.0%
all	15	-8.7%	-17.4%	73%	40%	-1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.4%	40%	-1.0%
10% ← realistic here	-25.3%	27%	-10.5%
15%	-32.5%	7%	-19.1%
20%	-39.1%	0%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

45% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$976 vs −$187 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.32 per $1 lost it wins $14.32

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage

Net worth$26,770

Realized+$10,615

Unrealized−$3,213

Win rate (resolved)73%

Wins / losses11 / 4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage46d

Avg bet$7,170

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	92¢	88¢	$16,314	$15,700	−$614 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	83¢	64¢	$11,181	$8,682	−$2,499 (-22%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	18¢	17¢	$2,296	$2,185	−$111 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	92¢	97¢	$193	$203	+$10 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	Jun 15	$10,047	+$1,138	+11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	Jun 12	$10,028	+$561	+6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Jun 12	$2,029	+$911	+45%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Jun 04	$90	−$90	-100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 03	$445	−$428	-96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Jun 02	$27,644	+$291	+1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Jun 01	$14,884	+$4,475	+30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	May 30	$6,571	+$1,715	+26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	May 27	$4,070	+$608	+15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	May 26	$6,509	+$72	+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	May 25	$3,939	+$131	+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	May 25	$221	−$214	-97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	May 24	$9,868	+$798	+8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	May 20	$9,723	−$18	-0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	May 20	$135	+$31	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$193	2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$10,065	2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$85	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$10,000	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$4,392	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$615	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$367	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$1	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$500	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$184	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$99	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$19	4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	90¢	$0	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	90¢	$191	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$709	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$344	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$13	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$820	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$342	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$1,048	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$18	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$13	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$229	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$4,698	5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	98¢	$983	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	SELL No	98¢	$7,233	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$3,356	6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	SELL Yes	94¢	$2,940	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	86¢	$2,916	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	83¢	$17	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,770.49 · official $26,770.49 (match) · 75 history records