Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf28a…e3dc politics 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,897 (-67%) realized −$2,897 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$2,876
other 11% +$130
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.4% -1.0% 40% 40% +14.9%
≤30d 5 +9.4% -1.0% 40% 40% +14.9%
≤90d 11 -29.4% -36.2% 18% 18% -78.6%
all 11 -29.4% -36.2% 18% 18% -78.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 18% -78.6%
10% -42.3% 18% -80.7%
15% -47.8% 9% -82.5%
20% -53.0% 9% -84.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$330 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2,897
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage153d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$136 +167%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $222 +$75 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $2,727 −$2,042 -75%
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 11 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 10 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 09 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in Apr 02 $1 $0 -21%
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this el Apr 01 $150 −$74 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $51 8m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 14m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $27 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $55 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $110 31h
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 26¢ $151 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $20 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this SELL Yes 10¢ $162 75d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $23 75d
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 76d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $23 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 156 history records