Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf289…141b crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17 (+327%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +288% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +252% what you keep after slip
Net edge+252%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$2
sports 40% +$18
other 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+251.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +288.5% +251.5% 20% 20% +255.9%
≤30d 5 +288.5% +251.5% 20% 20% +255.9%
≤90d 5 +288.5% +251.5% 20% 20% +255.9%
all 5 +288.5% +251.5% 20% 20% +255.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +251.5% 20% +255.9%
10% +217.9% 20% +221.9%
15% +187.2% 20% +190.8%
20% +159.0% 20% +162.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +293% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +289% · $-wt +293% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$1 · ×18.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.68 per $1 lost it wins $4.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 58m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 36h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records