Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf288…3c08
sports · 180 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$218 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$255 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$245
Realized−$255
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)177 / 180
History coverage108d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 3 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$104
14 days+$104
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 47¢ 46¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $181 +$198 +109%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$26 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 18 $16 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $24 +$19 +80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 06 $682 −$682 -100%
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals Apr 01 $50 +$18 +37%
Islanders vs. Sabres Apr 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$23 +114%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 01 $50 +$40 +81%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $85 +$101 +119%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Mar 29 $265 −$265 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) Mar 28 $104 +$96 +92%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $750 −$750 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 27 $422 +$332 +79%
Spread: Lakers (-9.5) Mar 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $100 +$19 +19%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $100 +$117 +117%
Spread: Hornets (-17.5) Mar 25 $520 +$480 +92%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 24 $10 $0 -4%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 24 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 24 $100 +$114 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 24 $100 +$263 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 24 $125 +$238 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $145 −$145 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Mar 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $423 +$99 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $400 +$298 +74%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $663 +$53 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $186 +$477 +257%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Seattle Redhawks vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 22 $10 −$1 -8%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 22 $10 $0 -4%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. New Mexico Lobos Mar 22 $10 $0 -4%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 22 $10 $0 -4%
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. California Golden Bears Mar 22 $10 $0 -4%
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 22 $10 $0 -3%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 22 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$964
sports 44% +$850
crypto 6% +$309
world 3% −$357
politics 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $181 22h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 2¢ $18 42h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 6¢ $64 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $31 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $15 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 11¢ $15 27d
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $68 73d
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 68¢ $682 73d
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ $50 73d
Senators vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 38¢ $25 74d
Senators vs. Panthers SELL Senators 62¢ $25 74d
Senators vs. Panthers BUY Senators 63¢ $25 74d
Islanders vs. Sabres BUY Islanders 36¢ $17 74d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 46¢ $20 74d
Will Wales win on 2026-03-31? BUY No 45¢ $85 74d
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) BUY Hornets 53¢ $265 78d
Spread: Clippers (-9.5) BUY Pacers 52¢ $104 78d
Knicks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 56¢ $422 79d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $750 80d
Spread: Lakers (-9.5) BUY Lakers 47¢ $500 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 40% +20.1%
≤30d 7 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 43% +18.8%
≤90d 93 -1.6% -11.0% 35% 34% -22.8%
all 177 +10.3% -0.2% 42% 41% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 41% -10.8%
10% -9.8% 39% -19.4%
15% -18.5% 38% -27.2%
20% -26.5% 36% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.91 · official $244.91 (match) · 436 history records