Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf284…18fb other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-9%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$23
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$116
crypto 20% +$32
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 58% -6.0%
≤30d 14 -7.0% -15.8% 71% 57% -20.3%
≤90d 14 -7.0% -15.8% 71% 57% -20.3%
all 14 -7.0% -15.8% 71% 57% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 57% -20.3%
10% -23.9% 29% -27.9%
15% -31.3% 29% -34.9%
20% -38.0% 14% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$51 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage11d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $178 +$32 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $69 +$10 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$50 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 24¢ $10 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $79 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $79 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $19 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $17 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 57¢ $11 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 82¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 51¢ $10 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $148 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $110 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $91 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.70 · official $203.70 (match) · 30 history records