Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F2 0xf283…02d4 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$0 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$14
crypto 20% +$1
other 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 27% +0.0%
≤30d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 27% +0.0%
≤90d 11 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 27% +0.0%
all 11 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 27% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 27% +0.0%
10% -38.2% 27% -9.5%
15% -44.2% 27% -18.3%
20% -49.6% 27% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $16 +$21 +128%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 $0 -5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9 +$6 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$3 -45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $13 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.58 · official $24.58 (match) · 25 history records